Three-dimensional shares (603033) investment value analysis report: dual drive of sleeper tape opens a new chapter in development

Three-dimensional shares (603033) investment value analysis report: dual drive of sleeper tape opens a new chapter in development

The company is a leading domestic rubber belt company, and acquired Guangxi Sanwei to enter the field of sleepers.

Benefiting from the national railway, rapid expansion of urban rail, and expansion of regional monopoly advantages, the company’s performance is expected to grow rapidly, and it is optimistic about future growth space.

The company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is predicted to be 0.

82/1.

32/2.

15 yuan.

Refer to comparable companies for 20xPE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 26.

40 yuan.

Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.

  Deeply plowed into the rubber belt industry and acquired Guangxi 3D Marching into the sleeper.

The company’s main rubber conveyor belts, V-belt products, and gradually cultivated into the industry leader for many years.

The company started in 2019.

700 million acquisition of Guangxi 3D, officially entered the sleeper industry, and opened a new chapter in development.

Guangxi Sanwei consolidated its financial statements in February 2019, driving a substantial increase in the company’s performance, and is expected to achieve net profit attributable to mothers in 20192.

2-2.

600 million, previously + 169% -217%.

  The national annual demand for rail sleepers is expected to exceed 20 billion, and certification barriers maintain high gross profit.

The demand for concrete sleepers comes from the two major fields of national railways and urban rail transit construction. We estimate that the average annual domestic sleeper demand will be about 20 billion in the next 2-3 years, of which 11 billion will be generated by the new national railway and 35 billion will be generated by the new rail transit.Replacement needs are about 6 billion yuan.

The gross profit margin of the sleeper industry 深圳桑拿网 generally maintains about 60%, mainly benefiting from the strict certification of door biology.

We believe that the future competitive landscape is expected to maintain stability and high profit potential.

  Regional monopoly advantages are obvious, and joint ventures quickly cut into the urban rail market.

Sanwei is the only company in Guangxi with the qualification of concrete track sleeper, and also the only city rail track plate qualification, with obvious regional advantages.

The company is based in Guangxi and radiates to South China and Southwest China. The potential market size in 2020 is expected to exceed USD 4 billion.

  By establishing a joint venture with the local urban rail group, the company successfully cut into the urban rail parts supply system and strived to quickly open the urban rail transportation market.

  Conveyor belt production expansion and cost reduction, strengthening the industry’s competitive advantage.

The company currently has a total capacity of 25 million square meters of conveyor belts, and 5 million square meters under construction is expected to start production in 2020.

At the same time, 50,000 MW cogeneration, 10-inch industrial polyester yarn and 25-inch chip and chip projects are under construction, and upstream raw materials and energy-related industries will be deployed. In the future, integrated production will gradually increase costs and enhance competitive advantages.

  Risk factors: The mileage of the newly started railway is less than expected; the bid rate of the company’s rail projects is lower than expected; the capacity under construction is released less than expected; the product price drops.

  Investment suggestion: The company is a leading domestic rubber belt company, acquiring Guangxi 3D to enter the field of sleepers.

Benefiting from the national railway, rapid expansion of urban rail, and expansion of regional monopoly advantages, the company’s performance is expected to grow rapidly, and it is optimistic about the future growth space.

It is predicted that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers will be 2 in 2019-2021.

50/4.

03/6.

53 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

82/1.

32/2.

15 yuan.

Refer to comparable companies for 20xPE in 2020, corresponding to a target market value of 80 trillion and a target price of 26.40 yuan.

Covered for the first time and given a “Buy” rating.