Yanghe shares (002304): Repurchase encourages employees and waits for performance to pick up
Event: The company achieved 210 operating income in the first three quarters of 2019.
980,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.
63%; net profit attributable to mother 71.
46 ppm, an increase of ten years.
Among them, 2019Q3 achieved operating income of 50.
99 ‰, a decline of 20 per year.
61%; net profit attributable to mother 15.
65 ppm, a ten-year average of 23.
The company also disclosed a repurchase program, with repurchase funds ranging from 1 trillion to 1.5 billion US dollars, and the repurchase price not exceeding 135 yuan / share.
Active destocking adjustments affect revenue Since the beginning of this year, terminal inventory in and out of the province has been relatively high, mainly because 1) the new and old packaging of the sea and sky series are alternated, and the instability in the price has led to higher inventory in the province.
2) The profit of the Hai and Tian series channels is relatively thin. After the company’s efforts to adjust, it still cannot be stabilized, and the sales enthusiasm of the dealers has declined.
3) Competition in the province has intensified, and some sub-high-end market shares have been snatched by competing products.
Beginning 杭州夜网 in May this year, in order to cope with the high inventory of dealers, the company proactively stopped the goods to help the terminal destock, which led to a shift in sales revenue in the third quarter of 2019.
At the same time, due to the change of policy, the company does not hold goods to dealers, so the company’s advance payment amount in Q3 2019 decreased by 7.
94 trillion, an increase of 2 trillion, the actual operating income of changes in operating income + advance receipts decreased by 25.
After two quarters of adjustment, the terminal inventory has fallen better. At present, the inventory in the province has basically replaced about 2 months, which is in a reasonable range.
Sales expenses increased, and gross profit margin was slightly lower. Since Q2 this year, in order to help dealers destock, the company as a whole has increased concessions to terminals.
Judging from the sales expense ratio, the sales expense of Q3 2019 increased by 11.
22%, selling expense ratio from 12 last year.
60% rose to 17.
65%, a significant increase, it is judged that the overall advertising, marketing and other expenses increased.
2019Q3 sales gross margin was 73.
94%, in the case of product structure adjustment (Dream Blue grew faster than the sea, sky), the gross profit rate fell.
6pcts also confirms the conjecture that the channel cost is increasing.
2019Q3 management expense ratio 8.
26%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
Finance expense ratio is 0.
17%, an increase of 0 from last year.
The repurchase encourages employees and waits for the performance to rise. The company also announced a repurchase plan. The repurchase funds accumulated in the range of 1 billion to 1.5 billion. The repurchase price did not exceed 135 yuan per share for repurchase.Core backbone employees implement equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans.
If the total repurchase limit is 15 trillion, and the repurchase price is 135 yuan per share, it is estimated that the number of repurchasable shares is about 1111.
110,000 shares, accounting for 0% of the company’s current total share capital.
This is the first time that the company has put the employee incentive plan on the agenda. At the stage of the transfer of the old and new leadership teams, we believe that this incentive will more effectively stimulate the company’s leadership. Earnings forecast According to the company’s initial goals, the company plans to increase its operating income by more than 12% in 2019, and the corresponding revenue target is 270.
From the operating situation in the first three quarters, there is a certain pressure to complete the task target. We are optimistic about the company’s potential to continuously upgrade its product structure in the high-end trend of liquor and its ability to continuously increase market share in the national layout. It is predicted that the company will enter in 2019.During the adjustment period, the revenue growth rate will be slightly lower than the target set earlier. It is expected that the sales revenue in 2019 will be 246.
67 ppm, an increase of ten years.
97%, net profit attributable to mother 82.
78 ppm, a 10-year increase2.
02%, achieving earnings per share of 5.
49 yuan, 19 times the current expected valuation.
Given a 23x target estimate, the target price is 126.
27 yuan to maintain the overweight level.
Risks suggest that breakthroughs in economic fluctuations have an impact on sub-high-end consumption, the company’s out-of-province market expansion is less than expected, and intensified market competition has led to substitution of market share.