Shengnong Development (002299): Single feather net profit maintains high performance
Net profit attributable to parent +236 from Q1 to Q3 of 1919.
34%, performance is consistent with the forecast
3Q19 performance: company 1?
3Q19 revenue 103.
110,000 yuan, +27 a year.
99%; net profit attributable to mother 27.
5.0 billion, previously +236.
34%, the performance is consistent with the notice.
57 trillion, +25 for ten years.
81%, net profit attributable to mother 10.
5.3 billion, previously +124.
1) Looking at the spin-off, we harvested 3Q19 breeding and slaughtering business / food business performance of 9 respectively.
75 ppm, corresponding to 1?
The performance of the 3Q19 breeding and slaughtering business / food business was 24.
25 ppm; 2) The rise in poultry prices is the main reason for the better performance. Therefore, the company’s gross profit margin increased by +11 in the third quarter of 1919.
3ppt to 34.
2%, and our exploration 3Q19 company breeding and slaughtering volume is about 1.
200 million white chickens, corresponding to a single net profit of 8.
15 yuan, higher than 6 during 1H19.
The average level of 83 yuan; 3) The company expects the lowest net profit attributable to mothers in 2019 to be +146.
74% to 37.
Development trend Residual pig supply, strengthening the substitution effect of poultry meat: Due to the impact of the African swine fever epidemic, the supply of pigs continues to shift. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the sow / pig inventory length in September can be -38.
1%, and the current decline in pig production has not bottomed out.
The gap between the supply and demand of hogs has spilled pork consumption, and the substitution effect of poultry 苏州夜网论坛 on pork has continued to increase, driving up the price of poultry.
According to the data of the Poultry and Livestock Association, the average production price of 3Q19 white feather broiler products was +9 in the past.
At 7%, the company’s performance also recorded better performance.
Looking forward, we judge that there will still be a gap in pork supply in 2020, and the substitution effect of poultry on pork will therefore continue, which will also maintain the price of poultry.
The introduction of ancestors has increased, and the industry supply has picked up: higher bird prices have simultaneously stimulated enthusiasm for breeding. This year, the introduction of ancestors of white feather broilers has continued to increase, and the inventory of adjacent breeding chickens has gradually increased.
According to 无锡夜网 data from the Livestock Industry Association, the average inventory of ancestor breeders in the third quarter of 19 plus the average inventory of parent breeders increased by +29.
6%, and we judge that in the next two times, it will increase the expansion trend, which will give a significant increase in the supply of white feather broilers in 2020.
Supply and demand are rising, and poultry prices are good: Overall, we judge that the white feather broiler industry will be a situation of double supply and demand in 2020. The substitution effect will stimulate increased demand for white feather broilers, and the supply of white feather broilers will also rise.
However, considering the current pork supply and demand gap and the increase in the substitution effect of poultry meat, we judge that changes in consumption will still cause the trend of poultry prices. Poultry prices will remain high in 2020, and the company’s performance will continue to improve.
Earnings forecast and forecast correspond to 9/8 times P / E ratio in 19/20.
Due to the better poultry prices, we raised our net profit forecast for mothers in 19/2023.
3% / 58.
8% to 37.
4.6 billion US dollars, but taking into account the release of performance after the company estimates that the center sinks, we maintain a target price of 37.
00 yuan is unchanged, target price corresponds to 19/20 12/11 times price-earnings ratio, + 40% space.
Maintain Outperform rating.
Risks Poorer-than-expected rise in bird prices; major epidemic risks; fluctuations in raw material prices.